Election Thread

[Phelphor, of the Deep]

@ roxas 

If Trump can prove that Biden and people working for Biden of some amount dishonestly that can change the whole thing. Im not expecting much and if drag out long enough, could potentially make trump look bad which can damage his chances of trying again in 2024. 

[Phantom Roxas]

@Ryusei the Morning StarThen all that means is that they were wrong this year.

@Godbrand Again, the main question I've been trying to ask is what exactly he would try to prove. Trump is just saying that the votes are fake, or that they should be thrown out. His case at the moment is "I don't like that I lost." That's it.

[vla1ne]

Another clerical error. wonder if she has a kid who applied as her as well.

[Phantom Roxas]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/07/us/politics/theres-no-evidence-to-support-claims-that-election-observers-were-blocked-from-counting-rooms.html

Looks like Trump and his lawyers shot their own "Our observers weren't allowed in the counting rooms" narrative in the foot with the lawsuits.

"His lawyers were, rather, asking the courts to force election officials to allow Mr. Trump’s observers to get even closer views of the counting activity.

A judge in the Nevada case dismissed the bid, ruling that Mr. Trump’s lawyers “failed to prove” that local election officials “interfered with any right they or anyone else has an observer.”"

"A case the Trump campaign brought in Chatham County, Ga., was, in fact, based on a Trump observer’s allegation that he had seen workers count some 53 ballots that weren’t valid — a thin charge that the observer could not support in court; the judge threw out the suit on Thursday."

So that's where Trump's lawsuits stand at the moment. The only "wins" were in the interest of expediting the case, and by no means proved any of the allegations that ballots were invalid or illegal.

"In fact, The Detroit Free Press reported, the cardboard was meant to block the view of boisterous protesters outside the room who were trying to photograph and video the workers handling ballots with sensitive personal information about voter preferences. At the time, The Free Press reported, there were 134 Republican observers inside the counting area, along with a similar number of Democratic observers."

So… yeah, there doesn't seem to be an issue here. These various claims keep having fairly harmless explanations, none of which have helped Trump any case of fraud.

[Phelphor, of the Deep]

15 hours ago, Phantom Roxas said:

@Ryusei the Morning StarThen all that means is that they were wrong this year.

@Godbrand Again, the main question I've been trying to ask is what exactly he would try to prove. Trump is just saying that the votes are fake, or that they should be thrown out. His case at the moment is "I don't like that I lost." That's it.

As stated before many of the votes are very fishy. If proven correctly certain states elector votes will swap over to Trump which can make quite of difference. 

[Phelphor, of the Deep]

If Joe Biden (with and or his team) is proven to commit some form of tampering then Joe Biden can be dismissed from the whole thing all together 

 

A unlikely situation but plausible. 

[Phantom Roxas]

Yet another good rundown.

I appreciate that you at least acknowledge that it's unlikely.

https://time.com/5908505/trump-lawsuits-biden-wins/

This is a good rundown, but I believe it would be best to have this discussion focus on the specific states that have issues that need to be resolved. The article was written before Trump filed his lawsuit against Maricopa County, Arizona, so we should count that one. I'm giving that a few days before it's dismissed.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

[(GigaDrillBreaker)]

16 minutes ago, Ryusei the Morning Star said:

Okay?

[Phantom Roxas]

The surge in votes for Biden appeared to be sudden because mail-in votes were counted later. That's likely why a lot of states that were traditionally red were not called until they flipped Biden; they needed to fact in those mail-in votes. Trump spent months disparaging mail-in voting (Despite him also relying on mail-in votes), and his supporters likely followed his advice, so it makes sense that votes coming through one method would disproportionately favor the candidate who didn't have a vendetta against that method.

I hope that "Trump ragged on mail-in voting, so a significant bulk of his supporters were likely discouraged from voting by mail, while Biden's supporters saw no harm in the process and voted accordingly" is a reasonable explanation. I am being careful to avoid an absolute statement because I want to leave enough room in case any of his supporters here did vote by mail, though I believe that those supporters would likely be in the minority.

[vla1ne]

Most of the many lawsuits start tomorrow, several states seem to be willing to call recounts, and the biggest bombs are liable to drop tuesday in court. It's gonna be a win or a loss this week, but we'll see where it goes.

 

Clerical error for the day, vote watchers testify that they were kept 15 feet (minimum) away from the ballot counting:

 

 

 

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

1 hour ago, Phantom Roxas said:

The surge in votes for Biden appeared to be sudden because mail-in votes were counted later. That's likely why a lot of states that were traditionally red were not called until they flipped Biden; they needed to fact in those mail-in votes. Trump spent months disparaging mail-in voting (Despite him also relying on mail-in votes), and his supporters likely followed his advice, so it makes sense that votes coming through one method would disproportionately favor the candidate who didn't have a vendetta against that method.

I hope that "Trump ragged on mail-in voting, so a significant bulk of his supporters were likely discouraged from voting by mail, while Biden's supporters saw no harm in the process and voted accordingly" is a reasonable explanation. I am being careful to avoid an absolute statement because I want to leave enough room in case any of his supporters here did vote by mail, though I believe that those supporters would likely be in the minority.

People expected it to be 70:30

 

It ended up being 80:20 (if you believe that) in Wisconsin (where even many dems were shocked by the red firewall)

 

 

[Phantom Roxas]

Being kept a certain amount of feet away isn't even a clerical error. It also sounds like they had rules in place that he risked violating, and they were enforcing that. Just sounds like Republicans complaining for the sake of complaining. Once again, you're trying to pass off something harmless as if it's "proof" of your narrative.

Oh, so people were wrong about the ratio? Okay.

 

[Phelphor, of the Deep]

 

Considering the hate & disinformation spewed about Trump from dems, media and, etc. There is NO DOUBT many people took it upon themselves if they weren't directly in on the coup.  What is currently being reporting is that Wisconsin election clerks may have illegally altered thousands of ballots. 

Poll workers in Wisconsin may have unlawfully altered thousands of mail-in ballots due to unlawful guidance from the state’s election commission, according to a report.

According to Wisconsin law, an absentee ballot requires that it be signed by a witness who also lists his or her address. Should the ballot not contain the a witness address, the ballot is disallowed and must be returned to the voter so that the witness can provide that information.

However, according to a report from the “Dan O’Donnell Show,” sources claim that “clerks and vote counters” in the state wrote in the witness signatures themselves. Furthermore, the report claims that the election workers chose to write in the addresses because they were illegally advised to do so by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC).

If the poll workers did in fact write the addresses in, the ballots are invalid.

“The statute is very, very clear,” said retired Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman. “If an absentee ballot does not have a witness address on it, it’s not valid. That ballot is not valid.”

According to O’Donnell, “The WEC sent uniform instructions to voters with their mail-in ballots that informed them that ‘your witness must sign and provide their full address (street number, street name, city) in the Certification of Witness section’ and warned that ‘if any of the required information above is missing, your ballot will not be counted.’”

Though, according to O’Donnell, additional guidance was sent to clerks in October that instructed them to fill-in the witness address portion of the ballot themselves, to prevent it from being invalidated.

“Please note that the clerk should attempt to resolve any missing witness address information prior to Election Day if possible, and this can be done through reliable information (personal knowledge, voter registration information, through a phone call with the voter or witness),” the WEC wrote. “The witness does not need to appear to add a missing address.”

Judge Gableman says that directive “turned the statute on its head.”

“In defiance of and direct contradiction to the statute, the Wisconsin Elections Commission gave guidance–that is, cover–to all 72 county clerks and turned the statute on his head,” Gableman explained. “They said, ‘Gee, we know the law says an absentee ballot without the witness address is not valid, but county clerk, you have a duty to go ahead and look up on your own the witness’ address if there’s no address on the absentee ballot.”

The WEC appears to be aware of the questionable legality of their directive given that the commission told clerks to write the addresses in using red ink, which would make the ballots easier to locate during a recount.

[Phelphor, of the Deep]

This is very suspicious!  This election software is in all the states with the problems and it has probably given the trump votes to Biden in other states also. 

mathtype online

convert text to all caps

 

[Phelphor, of the Deep]

Biden’s Vote Tallies Violate Benford’s Law, as all of the other candidates’ tallies follow Benford’s law across the country, except for Biden’s-clearly fails accepted test for catching election fraud, used by the State Department and forensic accountants. Benford's Law is a statistical rule that says that the distribution of digits in real-world numerical datasets tends to follow a specific pattern. It is often used to test whether an election is legitimate or phoney, by comparing the frequency of digits in candidates' vote counts to the expected pattern. For example, it was used in establishing electoral fraud in the 2009 Iranian election.

Someone online shared links that they recently came across which included several right-wing sources that claim President-elect Joe Biden's vote counts in the 2020 election violate Benford's Law. Examples include various websites like red elephants and various forums threads. The "Red Elephants" article makes several other claims of fraud, but I would like to restrict this question to the digit frequency analysis. Normally I would immediately dismiss something like this as a baseless partisan conspiracy theory, but the claims should be testable using public records and statistical analysis. Quote:

According to some analysts, Biden’s Vote Tallies Violate Benford’s Law, as all of the other candidates’ tallies follow Benford’s law across the country, except for Biden’s when he gets in a tight race. Biden pretty clearly fails an accepted test for catching election fraud, used by the State Department and forensic accountants.

Analysts ran the data with Allegheny using the Mebane 2nd digit test with Trump vs Biden. The difference was significant. It just doesn’t work. Biden’s is fishy, many significant deviations. In Trump’s there were only 2 deviations but neither are significant at the 5% level. The X-asis is the digit in question, the Y-axis is the % of observations with that digit.

 

[Phelphor, of the Deep]

I believe we're at a key moment in american history and also a key decision point and make no mistake: This is about America – not the president or any elected leaders.

Election corruption by Trump opponents widespread — it’s time for us to get mad! It's time for us to get mad.This is what many individuals came to conclude after spending the last several days puzzling over what we are seeing in the 2020 election. When Callista and others left the White House at 3 a.m. Wednesday many people was confused by the various things that were going on and couldn't quite figure out how to emotionally or intellectually deal with it. After a few days of digesting, it has become clear to many american loving patriots that there has been breathtaking systemic corruption during this election. It runs through the whole process. You have the Biden family corruption dealing with China, Russia, and Ukraine — which the national media have almost entirely refused to even consider investigating. It goes to the big technology companies that have been censoring people. Rush Limbaugh had four out of six tweets censored just Thursday. Many Republicans have been censored. The president of the United States has been censored. Facebook has apparently hired about a half-dozen Chinese algorithms specialists who have been helping the company perfect censorship in the style of the Chinese Communist dictatorship. You have the corruption of incredibly rich liberals, who spent an amazing amount of money to defeat Republicans. It's one of the few things I really liked about the election, they spent $75 million trying to beat Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and lost. They spent $105 million trying to beat Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and lost. They may have spent $43 million trying to beat Sen. Joni Ernst R-Iowa, and lost. You go through the corruption of the liberal news media, which for five years have been waging war on President Trump and did everything they could to convince us that there was a giant blue wave coming. Then the wave didn't show up because they'd all been lying to themselves and to us. Now we are seeing states where President Trump had been leading suddenly finding tranches of votes for former Vice President Joe Biden in Democratic-controlled urban centers, which have been just enough to push him into the lead. We’ve seen it in Atlanta, Savannah, Philadelphia and elsewhere. So many Americans believe we're at a key decision point in American history. And make no mistake: This is about America – not the president or any elected leaders. This is about whether or not we as Americans are willing to look the other way while a system of elite leftwing corruption undermines our democracy (some people will move heaven and earth to justify this wrong deed.) 

In addition to constantly attacking president Donald J Trump major elements of the political and left-wing media establishment have tried to suppress millions of Americans who share the president Donald J Trump's core values. Those who salute the flag, stand up for the pledge of allegiance, believe deeply in America, want jobs and opportunity for all Americans, and want the United States to be concerned first for American interests have been silenced or canceled for the last five years. If we are going to continue to be America, every legal vote must be counted and certified, illegal votes must be tossed out, and the American people must be allowed to make their choice for president of the United States.

[Phelphor, of the Deep]

In what is cast as the most divisive, contentious presidential election in the history of the United States, the American people are becoming increasingly aware of voter irregularities occurring in swing states, especially Michigan.

Even in supposedly “safe” Republican districts, votes cast for president Trump have been suppressed. In just one precinct in Michigan, a state representative discovered 600 suppressed votes today.

The County Clerk for St. Clair County, Jay Deboyer, blames ‘pressing the wrong button’ for causing President Trump’s totals to be significantly off. Despite the fact that St. Clair County is currently 2-1 in favor of Trump, this mistake is critical in Michigan, where the winner of its 16 electoral votes is separated by only 80,000 votes statewide.

According to the gateway pundit, “Michigan has 83 Counties, and St. Clair County has 163,040 people according to the Census, as of this past August there were 127,963 registered voters in the qualified voter file, the “QVF”. The County today reports 134,248 registered voters, of whom 92,670 voted in the November 3, 2020 election.” the suppression is uncovered! Thanks to investigation by State Representative Shane Hernandez, who’s home county is St. Clair, the 600 missing votes were discovered.

“I saw that there were missing votes in the County and worked to find them, and realized the absentees were missing. Activists need to check every County for votes like this, this was a complicated election and the Presidency might very well come down to a few thousand votes.

I was able to find these problems just sitting at home, I hope everyone looks into this and finds and fixes any problems,” Rep. Hernandez said.

After discovering the “error,” Hernandez contacted the County Clerk about the discrepancy in precincts Marysville 2 and 3, where the vote totals somehow showed no absentee ballots cast for President Trump. The Clerk then fixed the error and updated the totals.

Many counties in Michigan do not properly publish or make available their vote counts for the people to review and compare, therefore it may take time for people with the necessary experience and skill to review the results in other counties and ensure the votes are counted and reported properly.

[Phelphor, of the Deep]

Here are a few of several relevant images from the article:

First digit frequencies in Chicago

Second digit frequencies in Alleghany County, Pennsylvania

 

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

 

I feel sick

[Phantom Roxas]

Not a fan of Romney, but I suppose I can give Biden some credit for reaching across the aisle.

[vla1ne]

1 hour ago, Godbrand said:

I believe we're at a key moment in american history and also a key decision point and make no mistake: This is about America – not the president or any elected leaders.

Election corruption by Trump opponents widespread — it’s time for us to get mad! It's time for us to get mad.This is what many individuals came to conclude after spending the last several days puzzling over what we are seeing in the 2020 election. When Callista and others left the White House at 3 a.m. Wednesday many people was confused by the various things that were going on and couldn't quite figure out how to emotionally or intellectually deal with it. After a few days of digesting, it has become clear to many american loving patriots that there has been breathtaking systemic corruption during this election. It runs through the whole process. You have the Biden family corruption dealing with China, Russia, and Ukraine — which the national media have almost entirely refused to even consider investigating. It goes to the big technology companies that have been censoring people. Rush Limbaugh had four out of six tweets censored just Thursday. Many Republicans have been censored. The president of the United States has been censored. Facebook has apparently hired about a half-dozen Chinese algorithms specialists who have been helping the company perfect censorship in the style of the Chinese Communist dictatorship. You have the corruption of incredibly rich liberals, who spent an amazing amount of money to defeat Republicans. It's one of the few things I really liked about the election, they spent $75 million trying to beat Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and lost. They spent $105 million trying to beat Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and lost. They may have spent $43 million trying to beat Sen. Joni Ernst R-Iowa, and lost. You go through the corruption of the liberal news media, which for five years have been waging war on President Trump and did everything they could to convince us that there was a giant blue wave coming. Then the wave didn't show up because they'd all been lying to themselves and to us. Now we are seeing states where President Trump had been leading suddenly finding tranches of votes for former Vice President Joe Biden in Democratic-controlled urban centers, which have been just enough to push him into the lead. We’ve seen it in Atlanta, Savannah, Philadelphia and elsewhere. So many Americans believe we're at a key decision point in American history. And make no mistake: This is about America – not the president or any elected leaders. This is about whether or not we as Americans are willing to look the other way while a system of elite leftwing corruption undermines our democracy (some people will move heaven and earth to justify this wrong deed.) 

In addition to constantly attacking president Donald J Trump major elements of the political and left-wing media establishment have tried to suppress millions of Americans who share the president Donald J Trump's core values. Those who salute the flag, stand up for the pledge of allegiance, believe deeply in America, want jobs and opportunity for all Americans, and want the United States to be concerned first for American interests have been silenced or canceled for the last five years. If we are going to continue to be America, every legal vote must be counted and certified, illegal votes must be tossed out, and the American people must be allowed to make their choice for president of the United States.

Well i was gonna stay quiet on that ammo for now, I was sitting back and letting it all come out in the courts as i laugh like a madman. but yeah, mention benford's law on twitter and you have a high chance of getting nuked from the server. bidens numbers violate the literal metric used to identify foreign voter fraud. it was gonna be my clerical error for tomorrow, but now i gotta pull another one up. maybe like the ballots directly saying don't use sharpies, despite them handing out sharpies and restricting the use of pens.

 

side note, not sure if it was reported already, but fox fired judge pierro last night. apparently she was supposed to talk about the fraud cases. noggins getting a real good joggin these days eh?

 

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

1 hour ago, Godbrand said:

Here are a few of several relevant images from the article:

First digit frequencies in Chicago

Second digit frequencies in Alleghany County, Pennsylvania

 

They knew how many votes they needed. Printer go brrrrr

[vla1ne]

4 minutes ago, Ryusei the Morning Star said:

They knew how many votes they needed. Printer go brrrrr

You're beginning to beleive. welcome back.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

11 minutes ago, vla1ne said:

You're beginning to beleive. welcome back.

I just cannot figure out how Cleveland voted so differently than every other midwestern high AA urban hub

I just cannot