U.S. Government Set to Shutdown for Third Time This Year

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

Isn't that quite literally what you and vla1ne have both been doing? You two support the border wall entirely because you've based your judgments on the people who weren't caught.

No? Can't speak for him, but I base it off the CBP estimate that they catch 1 in 3 and based on the rape incidence on the way here (80%) and based on how much revenue it net for the cartels

 

Shall I go on?

[Phantom Roxas]

You could provide sources to back that up.

[vla1ne]

I base my judgments on many things. The people caught, and those who aren't. the drugs we catch and the drugs we miss. the list goes on. I would gladly just say remove all illegal immigrant assistance programs, and deport as soon as we see them, and have zero tolerance for anybody coming across illegally from anywhere while trying to game the system, but who among you actually sees the biggest culprits of that agreeing to stop doing it (such as sanctuary cities and the like)? Some states have created festering points for the problem to grow and spread from in the form of these sanctuary cities, then drink in government funding to pay for the overflow of people they now possess. 

 

There is a very small number of people who claim they absolutely cannot return home https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration/claims-fear yet we see that only one year is an actual aberration of the standard pattern increase https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration. We know that border patrol already claims to be stretched too thin to properly catch everybody coming across the spots between checkpoints. Fact is, we have a large number of people trying to come over illegally, we have border patrol saying this, live video footage, government that is unwilling to act on the issue with any efficiency, and those actually living on the unsecured parts saying they see a large amount of people who break across the border daily invading into america, yet somehow we don't have worthy cause to declare national emergency. Even though we have seen past presidents claim such emergencies over actions in countries across the sea that had absolutely nothing to do with us and go completely uncontested. That's all logic and fact. there is not a single assumption in this statement, yet somehow it's not enough for congress to move with anything resembling purpose. That is why we have the current situation. That is why i support the declaration, and construction of the wall.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

"CHIEF DEPUTY STEVE HENRY: Good morning. No, not a border county. Good morning, I’m Steve Henry, Chief Deputy, Pinal County, Arizona, and I’m here on behalf of Sheriff Paul Babeu. Many of you probably know who he is. And we do have a few things to say about this, because we live and breathe this every day.

Pinal County, for those of you that – for a small geography lesson – is located about 70 miles north of the United States-Mexican border. And the only thing separating the southern country line and Mexico is an Indian reservation. There’s not a whole lot going on down there except for smuggling. And of course, we don’t have any law-enforcement powers, normally, on an Indian reservation, unless you’re a nontribal member.

Fortunately, the smugglers are nontribal members, so we can do enforcement there. It’s not very well – it’s not very popular with the Indian tribe, but we still do it. Essentially, what we do every day is actually in combat to what the federal government seems to view as something that’s very innocuous and unimportant. For us, national security and sovereignty is important, and that’s why we’re involved in this each and every day.

And this has a direct effect on the citizens that not just live in Pinal County, not just live in Arizona but live throughout this country. You know, as the sheriff said earlier, what happens in Mexico or Arizona on Monday happens in his county on Thursday. It’s very, very true.

You know, it’s not hard to go from the United States-Mexican border at the Tohono O’odham Indian Reservation, move up to I-8 – which is in Arizona, which is in my county – slip over to I-10, and then from I-10, go to the East Coast. Or slip up on I-17, another 35 miles, and get on I-40 and move to the East Coast and everywhere else in between. It happens every day.

Essentially, when I – when I speak about sovereignty and national security issues, it’s for a reason, because under the Department of Defense definition of terrorism, the drug cartels are terrorists. And so in our backyard, our number-one trading partner in America – our number-two trading partner in Arizona – is Mexico. And we have terrorists in our backyard that operate with impunity each and every day, to the demise of Americans, to the demise of their own country, and to the demise of their own sovereignty in Mexico.

And that has a direct effect – a chilling direct effect – each and every day in Arizona, each and every day in America as a whole. You know, we go to Libya. We go to Afghanistan. We go to Pakistan. And we, for lack of a better word, we punish the terrorist organizations, because we are at war with terrorism. And as the president said before, there are no boundaries on terrorism. Well, it’s in our backyard, and we’re doing nothing about it at the federal level. We really aren’t.

I mean, it’s piecemeal. I’m not saying that we’re not doing exactly nothing. I mean, boots on the ground is fantastic. I mean, we have a great relationship with the Border Patrol, a great relationship with ICE, HSI. But when you get into the leadership aspect of those organizations, it’s almost “see no evil, hear no evil.” But the people on the ground do understand.

My deputies go out each and every day. It’s like sending them to Iraq or Afghanistan. They have to wear heavy body armor. They have to wear helmets. They have to wear night vision. The enemy operates at night. And we all know that, and so that’s the way we operate as well. We’re outgunned; we’re outmanned. They have the same technology that we do. They have encrypted radios.

They have solar chargers for their radios on top of lookouts. We have over 100 lookout positions in the United States that are manned by armed criminals from another country. That’s a sovereignty issue. That’s a national security issue in our own country. And if you don’t believe me, come down and visit me. I’ll take you to them. I’ll show you. I myself go out and work these missions with my deputies.

You know, we’ll come out of a helicopter, we’ll swoop out of the sky, we’ll land at an LP, and five or six guys dressed in BDUs will take off with AK-47s and run down the mountain from us. And we have to clear those things tactically. We can’t chase these people through the desert. We don’t have the manpower or the air assets to do it, most of the time. So we still have to clear the cave, or clear the OP, or whatever we’re doing at that moment.

And you can’t chase those people. And then when we do chase them, the probability of getting in a gunfight is quite huge. And I don’t know about you, but the idea of facing off with two or three guys that have nothing to lose – because if they go back home after they’ve been arrested, they’re probably going to get killed anyway, as you’ve probably all seen on the internet – I guess the wonderful thing and the bad thing about technology is, everything’s on it.

The narco-cartels own their own blogs. They own their own URLs. You can go and do the research yourself, and see what they’re doing to their own people. If you want to talk to me afterwards, I’ll give you the web pages. It’s disgusting. It’s tragic, and it’s crimes against humanity. And it happens each and every day.

And you know, if you don’t think this is spilled over into America, you’re wrong. Chandler, Arizona, last year – a beheading directly related to narcoterrorism. And it was a hit, because someone snitched, or whatever it was.

So what’s going on in Mexico is going on in America. You know, you have 40,000-plus people that are murdered in Mexico, directly related to the drug war that the Mexican government’s conducting right now. I would tell you that that 40,000 people is an inaccurate number. That’s just 40,000 have been reported or found. I bet you there’s another 85 to 100,000 people behind that – they just haven’t produced the bodies yet.

Let’s talk about some numbers on the American side. According to the United States Border Patrol, just in the Tucson sector alone – which is in Arizona, and there’s many sectors on the border – last year they apprehended about 200,000-and-change people coming across the border, just in that sector. They admit, or tell us, that it’s only one-third of the people that came across the border. So we’re only getting one out of three."

According to a stunning Fusion investigation, 80 percent of women and girls crossing into the U.S. by way of Mexico are raped during their journey. That’s up from a previous estimate of 60 percent, according to an Amnesty International report.

 

https://splinternews.com/is-rape-the-price-to-pay-for-migrant-women-chasing-the-1793842446

[vla1ne]

"CHIEF DEPUTY STEVE HENRY: 

Gonna want to separate that a little better. there's way to few breaks in that. also, do you have the link to the person saying that? You know it's gonna be asked. If you have it, or can link to something similar, that would be for the best.

[Phantom Roxas]

Gonna want to separate that a little better. there's way to few breaks in that. also, do you have the link to the person saying that? You know it's gonna be asked. If you have it, or can link to something similar, that would be for the best.

 

https://cis.org/Panel-Transcript-Crime-Challenges-Illegal-Immigration

 

It's from a panel from 2011. I don't think it would be disingenuous to say that the statistics have most likely changed over the past seven years, so it might be more helpful to show more recent numbers. Same goes with the SplinterNews report, which is from 2014, and it's specifically about an estimate increasing. If we're going to show how a 2014 report increased over a previous report, surely we can discuss how further reports may have changed since 2014?

[Phantom Roxas]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/14/romney-alexander-national-emergency-1221317

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/13/republicans-veto-trump-1221023

 

More Republicans are turning against the declaration of national emergency. Important statements that come up are about how opposing the emergency is not the same as opposing border security, nor should this be taken as a personal slight against Trump. So again we come back to how it needs to be stressed that "They're just doing it to spite Trump" is a ridiculously ignorant oversimplification that is completely out of touch with how the Constitution should be upheld.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

The whole arguments that it would let the democrats do gun grabbing by EO is stupid

 

They're being disloyal rats, and the ones in red states will be ousted for this treason

[Phantom Roxas]

Voting to overturn Trump abusing his position by no means makes them disloyal. Calling this treason is an overreaction, and I highly doubt that they'll be ousted over it. How extreme do you have to be if you limit yourself to a binary where if you do not support the wall specifically, it's somehow treason?

[Nathanael D. Striker]

CNBC: Trump tweets 'VETO!' after Senate votes to block his border emergency declaration.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/14/senate-votes-to-block-trump-border-wall-national-emergency-declaration.html

 

59-41 in the Senate, so the Senate somewhat likely can override a veto starting from here. Thus, the House becomes a battleground.

[Phantom Roxas]

The House is certainly going to override the veto. The problem is going to be getting eight more Senators to override, but I think if they can get this many Republicans already, another eight should hopefully be a bit more. I can't imagine that many Republicans would be happy with him invoking veto power, regardless of whether or not they voted in favor of the national emergency.

 

Personally, I want to see this dragged out for as long as possible so Trump goes into the 2020 election with his wall still unfinished.

[vla1ne]

If he goes into it still battling for the wall, that may well keep his voters on his side, as he'll be actively fighting for the main promise of the campaign. It's a slow burn, but it's not something that I see as hurting him so much as it'll help his argument that he is still fighting to give the people what they asked for.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

The House is certainly going to override the veto. The problem is going to be getting eight more Senators to override, but I think if they can get this many Republicans already, another eight should hopefully be a bit more. I can't imagine that many Republicans would be happy with him invoking veto power, regardless of whether or not they voted in favor of the national emergency.

 

Personally, I want to see this dragged out for as long as possible so Trump goes into the 2020 election with his wall still unfinished.

Roxas, do you know how many votes you need in the house to override a veto?

 

FYI you need about 40 more republican congressman to do it

 

Good luck

Sometimes I'm convinced you just talk out of your ass cuz you think you can get away with it

[Flame Dragon]

Roxas, do you know how many votes you need in the house to override a veto?

 

FYI you need about 40 more republican congressman to do it

 

Good luck

 

Sometimes I'm convinced you just talk out of your ass cuz you think you can get away with it

You need to stop with personal attacks. This "Sometimes I'm convinced you just talk out of your ass cuz you think you can get away with it" isn't needed. Stop.

 

Also, tone is hard to read in text, but also learn to at least act like you respect the people you interact with. I don't care if you hate Roxas to the core of your being. I don't care if you think he is an idiot. If you're going to interact with him, don't be an jabroni about it.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

You need to stop with personal attacks. This "Sometimes I'm convinced you just talk out of your ass cuz you think you can get away with it" isn't needed. Stop.

 

Also, tone is hard to read in text, but also learn to at least act like you respect the people you interact with. I don't care if you hate Roxas to the core of your being. I don't care if you think he is an idiot. If you're going to interact with him, don't be an jabroni about it.

He's lying just because he knows he can get away with it. He was trying to gaslight away a 40 vote margin, and I called him out on it.

 

They have nowhere near the 2/3rds majority in the house to overturn the Veto. Fact, not opinion

 

People don't even read their own sources. Fact, not opinion.

 

"Trump has not yet vetoed a bill. Overturning a presidential veto requires a two-thirds vote in the House and Senate, but there aren’t enough votes to do so on the border resolution."

 

Striker is just as ideologically distinct to me, so please don't try to spin this as me being aggressive cause of politics

[Flame Dragon]

He's lying just because he knows he can get away with it. He was trying to gaslight away a 40 vote margin, and I called him out on it.

 

They have nowhere near the 2/3rds majority in the house to overturn the Veto. Fact, not opinion

 

People don't even read their own sources. Fact, not opinion.

 

"Trump has not yet vetoed a bill. Overturning a presidential veto requires a two-thirds vote in the House and Senate, but there aren’t enough votes to do so on the border resolution."

 

Striker is just as ideologically distinct to me, so please don't try to spin this as me being aggressive cause of politics

No, it is you being aggressive. I don't know how much of it is the subject matter and how much of it is a result of Roxas, but you do not need to, nor should you, carry yourself the way you do.

 

"Roxas, why do you think the House override is locked? The House is likely 40 votes short of overriding so I don't see where you're coming from."

 

Thats all you need to do to challenge what he is saying. That isn't how you do it though. You are overly aggressive and patronizing and you need to stop.

[Phantom Roxas]

If it will help clear things up, I thought that the House had a much more comfortable margin for the two-thirds majority than they really do. I was wrong, and I apologize for my error.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

If it will help clear things up, I thought that the House had a much more comfortable margin for the two-thirds majority than they really do. I was wrong, and I apologize for my error.

Thank you. I will try to have a less cynical view of your intentions from now on

[Nathanael D. Striker]

USA TODAY: Trump vetoes resolution blocking his border wall emergency, his first use of that power.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/03/15/donald-trump-use-veto-power-first-time-his-border-wall/3174710002/

 

As expected, Trump vetoes the resolution. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an attempt to push for an override, even a small one. Otherwise, another round will be in six months.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

USA TODAY: Trump vetoes resolution blocking his border wall emergency, his first use of that power.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/03/15/donald-trump-use-veto-power-first-time-his-border-wall/3174710002/

 

As expected, Trump vetoes the resolution. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an attempt to push for an override, even a small one. Otherwise, another round will be in six months.

Can't sheet out 47 votes, and this time you can filibuster it in the senate and it still need 67 votes

 

Not gonna happen. Trump is smart, he's starting building in Texas which is under the 5COA so you can't just shop for some lefty judge in CA to nix the deal

I do expect Pelosi to try regardless 

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

They got 245 votes for the resolution that Trump just vetoed. To override the veto, they’d need 290, or two-thirds of the chamber. DOA.

 

DOA

[vla1ne]

Gotta say, the sheer amount of resistance to a physical barrier is rather surprising. 23-25 billion for a two year (tops) project to stauch the flow of illegal immigration isn't that bad. We have numbers from multiple areas along the border that already have wall attesting to the validity of a border wall in relation to border security. We have contractor estimates that put the wall at 22-33 billion overall from the start, proving it wouldn't be all that expensive. We even have word from border patrol telling us they gave input on the wall for maximum practicality. Yet we see multiple people trying to stop the wall by any and all means available. Even assuming they don't like the idea, it's not something that's so expensive, or such a net negative that it should be getting battled this hard in government. there have been far worse ideas proposed and pushed forward without this level of absurd resistance.

[Phantom Roxas]

Gotta say, the sheer amount of resistance to a physical barrier is rather surprising. 23-25 billion for a two year (tops) project to stauch the flow of illegal immigration isn't that bad. We have numbers from multiple areas along the border that already have wall attesting to the validity of a border wall in relation to border security. We have contractor estimates that put the wall at 22-33 billion overall from the start, proving it wouldn't be all that expensive. We even have word from border patrol telling us they gave input on the wall for maximum practicality. Yet we see multiple people trying to stop the wall by any and all means available. Even assuming they don't like the idea, it's not something that's so expensive, or such a net negative that it should be getting battled this hard in government. there have been far worse ideas proposed and pushed forward without this level of absurd resistance.

 

How is 22 billion in any way not expensive? Sure, the House only approved 7% of the money he wanted, but I think Trump should take the money that they're giving him, because they need to spread out their money. Trump just seems to think that the wall is where the majority of the money should be funneled towards, and his emergency is receiving this much resistance because the declaration is inherently unconstitutional. I'd say Pelosi was to right to call out the GOP for being hypocrites here, because the GOP will defend the Constitution to the death, and are quick to perceive threats to the Constitution, except when Trump actually does pose a legitimate threat to the Constitution that they hold so dear, they are all too happy to let Trump violate it.

 

I'm going to head off yet another "But what about when Obama or these other Presidents did it?" deflection. I am not interested in discussing those past presidents. I do not care about comparing Trump to anyone else. I'm only here to talk about why Trump's declaration is unconstitutional by itself. Trump threatens to cut scientific institutions, and redirect the money to the wall. Trump operates largely by repealing Obama-era initiatives, seemingly for absolutely no other reason than Obama did them. I have no patience for the "No president has been hated as much as Trump is" when he immediately follows a president that he started a birther conspiracy towards, while Merrick Garland was opposed by McConnell, again for absolutely no other reason than being nominated by Obama.

 

Trump has tunnel vision for his wall. Congress has a responsibility to fund more initiatives than just the wall, but Trump seems to be going all or nothing with the wall. If he can't have his wall, what good is anything else that the budget needs to delegate money towards? He also seems to think that the wall and border security are one and the same. To have border security means to have the wall, and without the wall, border security is worthless.

 

I know it's come up before that the wall should target areas because the middle of nowhere is popular for migrant traffic, but even the people building the wall haven't seen any trace showing that the middle of nowhere has actually been used that much.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

You need three groups of people to sign off on a budget

 

50% of the HOR

 

60% of the Senate

 

and the President

 

Why should he budge if he's getting a pittance while everyone else gets everything they want

[vla1ne]

it's extremely simple, 22 billion, even up front, is the total cost of building the wall, and construction would take years to complete. this is all it would take to ensure that coming over illegally would be made all the more difficult and discouraged all the more. 22 billion is nothing when it comes to securing the borders, and if they could have at least agreed to 7 ot 10 billion yearly, we could have seen a peaceful resolution to the entire problem. but nope.

 

 

As for the builders not seeing anybody, Illegal immigrants, especially those coming through such open spaces, are not likely to risk getting caught by running near such a bustling hub of activity. If i'm coming in illegally, then i'm going to see the top of your construction equipment, long before you catch sight of me, and if i'm not trying to get caught, i'm going to avoid you before we can even encounter each other. They can see the wall going up already, why would they be blatantly stupid enough to try crossing there? As for why there, it makes perfect sense. if you only block off populated areas, what exactly prevents people from walking right around the border? building around specific areas is only a stopgap till they're all built across, past that, you then have to ensure that the clearly open spaces are not easily exploitable/ not worth attempting. you don't just cover a couple spaces and call it a day, you cover all areas and make sure you have people and surveilance to back it up.