Blue Wave 2018

[Phantom Roxas]

With the midterm elections this year, Democrats are focused on flipping red states to blue.
 
[spoiler=The Texas primaries are tonight, and so far early voting turnout is leaning heavily Democrat.]

I doubt that the "Blue Wave" will be completely effective, but judging by elections such as Doug Jones defeating Roy Moore, it does seem that there is at least some strength to it, rather than just a lot of hot air. I imagine we may see some red states turn purple, as well as some previously purple states either choose one extreme or the other.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

Sure, if the GOP is dumb enough to elect pedophiles in every county, the Dems may have a chance

 

The actual facts of the matter, dems need a Generic ballot of +5/6, and that's been shrinking against their favor

[Sunshine Jesse]

I predict the Dems are going to win by a moderate (but not healthy or comfortable) margin due to a combination of bad messaging, weakness, and pandering to the tribalistic anti-Trump narrative while refusing to focus on the actual issues (the worst of which they agree with him on, whoops).

 

At which point they're going to funk everything up and disillusion a whole new generation of voters to their bullshit like they always do.

[Phantom Roxas]

I predict the Dems are going to win by a moderate (but not healthy or comfortable) margin due to a combination of bad messaging, weakness, and pandering to the tribalistic anti-Trump narrative while refusing to focus on the actual issues (the worst of which they agree with him on, whoops).

 

At which point they're going to funk everything up and disillusion a whole new generation of voters to their bullshit like they always do.

 

That sounds about right. While I do want Dems to win (And I imagine it will be only a moderate margin as you said), part of it is that the tribalism also relies on pitting Democrat against Democrat, rather than Democrat against Republican. Justice Democrats, Brand New Congress, and Our Revolution, all movements made by people who supported Bernie Sanders, are focused on defeating other Democrats just as much as they want to defeat Trump. And there were a few Justice Democrats who won districts in Texas, while a couple others lost. But there are candidates who are using the platform of nothing more than being the "alternative", so there's still that risk of "the lesser of two evils".

 

So we're still stuck in that mentality of "I'll vote for the lesser evil" rather than "I'm going to vote for someone who is genuinely good."

[Sunshine Jesse]

That sounds about right. While I do want Dems to win (And I imagine it will be only a moderate margin as you said), part of it is that the tribalism also relies on pitting Democrat against Democrat, rather than Democrat against Republican. Justice Democrats, Brand New Congress, and Our Revolution, all movements made by people who supported Bernie Sanders, are focused on defeating other Democrats just as much as they want to defeat Trump. And there were a few Justice Democrats who won districts in Texas, while a couple others lost. But there are candidates who are using the platform of nothing more than being the "alternative", so there's still that risk of "the lesser of two evils".

 

So we're still stuck in that mentality of "I'll vote for the lesser evil" rather than "I'm going to vote for someone who is genuinely good."

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the DACA issue sunk them entirely and they suffered even worse losses.

 

The only thing establishment Democrats had going for them in the past decade or so was trying to guilt lower-middle class white people into voting for them, but the DACA fiasco pretty definitely showed that they don't actually care enough to fight for what they're trying to guilt people over. It was a pitiful display of weakness that shouldn't (and probably won't) be forgiven by anyone other than their core base. I know I haven't. It was the last straw for me, and I was as left-wing as left-wing could be up until the past month or so.

 

I hope they keep losing until they actually learn their lesson.

[Phantom Roxas]

I'm sure DACA was the last straw. Following the aforementioned movements on Twitter (Which admittedly still offers a limited perspective), DACA has since become a source of tension.

 

So I do want establishment Democrats to keep losing. Nancy Pelosi and Dianne Feinstein are up for reelection this year, and Feinstein failed to get the party's endorsement. While Kevin de Leon didn't cross the threshold for endorsement either, he nevertheless came much closer than Feinstein did. At least in Feinstein's case, and I'm sure this applies to many others, she only seems interested in keeping her position to maintain the status quo, which shows that the establishment Democrats care more about complacency than actually making change.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

Ted Cruz got more than 2x his dem opponents vote total and GOP turn out surpassed 2010 levels

[Phantom Roxas]

Ted Cruz got more than 2x his dem opponents vote total and GOP turn out surpassed 2010 levels

 

Ted Cruz got 1.3m votes. The total votes for his Democratic opponents was just over one million. Cruz certainly got more than the Democrats' total, but not twice more. I did see your status update at the time, but the results changed as hours went by, so while your point was initially true, it later became inaccurate.

 

As I mentioned in the beginning of this thread, Democratic turnout was also significantly higher than 2014's levels. So turnout was an improvement for both parties.

 

Here's a good list of some of the results. https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-primary-election

 

https://twitter.com/EmmaVigeland/status/971419642882293760

 

Of the seven Justice Democrats who competed with Texas, two lost, three won, and the remaining two are heading to a run-off.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

Ted Cruz got 1.3m votes. The total votes for his Democratic opponents was just over one million. Cruz certainly got more than the Democrats' total, but not twice more. I did see your status update at the time, but the results changed as hours went by, so while your point was initially true, it later became inaccurate.

 

As I mentioned in the beginning of this thread, Democratic turnout was also significantly higher than 2014's levels. So turnout was an improvement for both parties.

 

Here's a good list of some of the results. https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-primary-election

 

https://twitter.com/EmmaVigeland/status/971419642882293760

 

Of the seven Justice Democrats who competed with Texas, two lost, three won, and the remaining two are heading to a run-off.

My apologies

[Phantom Roxas]

Democrat Conor Lamb wins the special election in Pennsylvania's 18th District, which had voted for Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/politics/pa-18-democratic-playbook/index.html

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

NGL, Lamb sounded more like Trump than the Republican. I really wish they'd just start putting Trumpists where Trump won. That being said, a stunning victory for the dems. Devastating result for the GOP. 

[Phantom Roxas]

I believe that goes back to what Jesse said where there are some issues that Democrats actually do agree with Trump on.

 

From what I understand, this particular election extends beyond the district itself, in that while Lamb won by a very small margin, that he won at all is still a damaging blow to the GOP, as it suggests that districts that don't lean as strongly towards Trump are now more likely to be even more at risk of Dem victories.