[RESULTS ARE FINAL] 2016 Election for President of the United States | Donald Trump Victory

[Sunshine Jesse]

You can beat a dead horse all you want, but the fact of the matter is that the rest of America doesn't care. And the polls are reflecting it:

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast

 

 

The emails are old news, and don't really resonate with anyone anymore outside of the echo chamber of the Cult of Trump.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

You can beat a dead horse all you want, but the fact of the matter is that the rest of America doesn't care. And the polls are reflecting it:

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast

 

 

The emails are old news, and don't really resonate with anyone anymore outside of the echo chamber of the Cult of Trump.

False

 

>60% think she should be indited, and only 18% think she's honest and trustworthy, lying to congress and the FBI on the other hand has nothing to do with emails and is a crime.

 

The only people that don't care are people more bothered by Trump being mean than someone who doesn't care about nat security....

 

You might not care, but polls show you're in the minority rather than me here

 

And a week ago he was beating her in the Now cast...so what?

 

But solid A+ in ignoring everything else.

 

- False Flag Cuba libel

- Proof of Trump being supportive of woman rather than calling her miss piggy

- Obama admin retreating again on Iran deal

[LordCowCowCowCowCowCowCowCow]

people more bothered by Trump being mean than someone who doesn't care about nat security....

You need to stop saying this. It's pretentious, idiotic, and is a completely blatant attempt to hand wave and generalize anything anyone here has said against Trump. You're not an idiot, don't act like it.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

You need to stop saying this. It's pretentious, idiotic, and is a completely blatant attempt to hand wave and generalize anything anyone here has said against Trump. You're not an idiot, don't act like it.

I'm talking about the 6% of people who think Social Justice is the biggest problem facing the country (this is from polls)

 

Those people don't care about HRC's emails

 

The 26% that rate terrorism/nat sec as the primary concern do

 

That's the pt I was making

[Sunshine Jesse]

False

 

>60% think she should be indited, and only 18% think she's honest and trustworthy, lying to congress and the FBI on the other hand has nothing to do with emails and is a crime.

 

The only people that don't care are people more bothered by Trump being mean than someone who doesn't care about nat security....

 

You might not care, but polls show you're in the minority rather than me here

 

And a week ago he was beating her in the Now cast...so what?

 

But solid A+ in ignoring everything else.

 

- False Flag Cuba libel

- Proof of Trump being supportive of woman rather than calling her miss piggy

- Obama admin retreating again on Iran deal

Yeah, that was two months ago. Then the debate happened, and now people would rather see a liar and possible criminal who knows what they're doing than a liar and possible criminal who doesn't. In the eyes of reasonable undecideds, Hillary is either morally equal to (or better than) Trump. Conspiracies and lies from the Trump campaign aren't going to change this.

 

I care about the emails but I look at Trump and don't see anything better.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

Yeah, that was two months ago. Then the debate happened, and now people would rather see a liar and possible criminal who knows what they're doing than a liar and possible criminal who doesn't. In the eyes of reasonable undecideds, Hillary is either morally equal to (or better than) Trump. Conspiracies and lies from the Trump campaign aren't going to change this.

 

I care about the emails but I look at Trump and don't see anything better.

LAtimes is the only real poll you should focus on because of their likely voter model

 

Q: Do you use a likely voter model? 

A: No, the respondents provide us with their own subjective probability of voting and we use that to weight their responses. 

 

Everyone else guesses who is a likely voter

 

When Trump was down in the LA times polls, I was worried, he's not down, he's gone up post debate. She came off like a smug ass, Trump killed her on the Trade and Terrorism part (what most Americans care about) him flubbing on Social Justice/Birtherism is saddening to me, but not important

 

"Miss Piggy" sure as hell didn't have an impact, because now it's his word in a video praising her, and her thanking him back, against a laugh on stern and her alleging private convos. Trump has problems, but his supporters are way more enthusiastic about voting for him. THAT is what won Obama 2012 and 2008

 

I'm just gonna respond by saying conspiracies and lies like the Cuba thing isn't gonna make Trump leaning undecideds cave either

 

If you want me to point out PPP dishonesty, last time they sampled +4 dems (~2012 numbers, more people have become independent and more republicans have signed up, but lets say it's +4 dem), now they sampled +10 dem post debate and were like Clinton Rose 2% overall...that's not reality

[Sunshine Jesse]

People voted for Obama the first time partly out of fear towards Palin. The enthusiasm just gave him a base to work with.

 

Hillary already has this base due to her mountains of experience and large amount of exposure. Not only that, the populace at large is afraid of her opponent.

 

Incumbent presidents always have the advantage as long as they don't f*** up. And Obama didn't f*** up.

[Aerion Brightflame]

If you'd stop attacking me for being a 'shill' for a second - you'd notice a) I was not the one who first brought the story up. b) I actually didn't comment on the story itself beyond pointing out how amusing it is that he could theoretically be charged with treason.

 

My comments were primarily focused on how the Trump campaign would defend the allegations - and they did a funking awful job of it. His campaign manager gave a very vague comment that implied guilt, and a press release from one of his lawyers focused on staute of limitations, not insisiting innocence. Which

 

So even if the story is false (and I think there is evidence money was spent in Cuba), he still takes a hit because he handled it so poorly. I don't see what part of that could make me a shill (Unless being a shill means anti Trump?)

 

I will admit that I didn't look into the rumours much, but it kinda didn't matter to the points I was duscussing

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

If you'd stop attacking me for being a 'shill' for a second - you'd notice a) I was not the one who first brought the story up. b) I actually didn't comment on the story itself beyond pointing out how amusing it is that he could theoretically be charged with treason.

 

My comments were primarily focused on how the Trump campaign would defend the allegations - and they did a funking awful job of it. His campaign manager gave a very vague comment that implied guilt, and a press release from one of his lawyers focused on staute of limitations, not insisiting innocence. Which

 

So even if the story is false (and I think there is evidence money was spent in Cuba), he still takes a hit because he handled it so poorly. I don't see what part of that could make me a shill (Unless being a shill means anti Trump?)

 

I will admit that I didn't look into the rumours much, but it kinda didn't matter to the points I was duscussing

There's money he gave money to a third party, after President Clinton made an initiative to try to make peace with Cuba

 

There was a very prominent piece he wrote immediately afterwards that attacked doing business in Cuba due to their humanitarian dealings

 

When prominent Cubans are panning the piece, and no major paper is bring it up, there's a problem Tom

 

Kellyanne's resp wasn't even that terrible towards, but I agree, when I'm doing more research to find out why the story is BS relative to the Trump campaign there is a problem

 

But I apologize for losing my temper there with you. But when IS the last time you brought up a negative story about HRC, and don't tell me there haven't been anyone. I've noted my problems with Trump and still do, IDK why the rest of y'all can't do that to HRC

People voted for Obama the first time partly out of fear towards Palin. The enthusiasm just gave him a base to work with.

 

Hillary already has this base due to her mountains of experience and large amount of exposure. Not only that, the populace at large is afraid of her opponent.

 

Incumbent presidents always have the advantage as long as they don't f*** up. And Obama didn't f*** up.

Doesn't explain why HRC is getting ~6% of romney people and Trump is getting 12% of Obama people

 

Dem leakage to Trump is more sig than NeoCon Bush people going to HRC

 

Edit:

 

Thank god for that, Bushites are the worse and why people like me wouldn't normally vote Red, funk war hawks

[(GigaDrillBreaker)]

people would rather see a liar and possible criminal who knows what they're doing than a liar and possible criminal who doesn't

This is an elegant line. I am going to use it elsewhere.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

now people would rather see a liar and possible criminal who knows what they're doing and wants war than a liar and possible criminal who wants to focus on America's problems

 

*fixed for reality 

 

Ehh, don't bet on that one

He's got a lot of work to do, not denying that for a second, the fact his lawyers didn't dig up what I did in 30 minutes really concerns me, he could have panned this cuba issue and turned it on the media for trying to sink him, but he half-assed it

 

But I'm not seeing him being accused of any maliciously criminal activity like HRC, using a loophole to pay lower taxes =/= hiring a guy to wipe information post subpoena, then having a second guy hide the first guys sheet

 

It's also not the same as pocketing millions from relief money to a country in devastation or selling Uranium to the Russians 

 

If he gets convicted on the rape thing (99.95 he won't) then yeh, you have a pt

[Aerion Brightflame]

Actually a lot of major news sites are reporting on it. The BBC, the Guardian, Washington Post, CNN, ABC all have articles about it. So that dismissal doesn't work, the BBC is generally pretty good at not

 

Hell the newsweek article you dismissed seems to have actual evidence of this in the form of the expenses document address to Trump iirc, which can't be a fabrication. So it still doesn't seem baseless like you are implying.

 

Last Hillary piece was like her pneumonia. There's nothing worth posting tbh - We know she's a crook. We know about the emails (and that she's already avoided conviction already), we known the Clinton Foundation has done some shady sheet (But is still actually a good charity because it does a lot of charitable work and is fairly aclaimed). It's just really poor reworks of stuff we already know repeayed in ever more grasping forms

 

Trump has similar in terms of a lot of it being grasping and weak (though not to the extent you like to claim), but it has the advantage of being absurd to the point of hilarity.

 

Plus there is no need for me to post Hillary sheet when you are constantly posting it. It would be redundant.

[Dad]

LAtimes is the only real poll you should focus on because of their likely voter model

 

Q: Do you use a likely voter model? A: No, the respondents provide us with their own subjective probability of voting and we use that to weight their responses. 

 

Everyone else guesses who is a likely voter

 

When Trump was down in the LA times polls, I was worried, he's not down, he's gone up post debate. She came off like a smug ass, Trump killed her on the Trade and Terrorism part (what most Americans care about) him flubbing on Social Justice/Birtherism is saddening to me, but not important

 

"Miss Piggy" sure as hell didn't have an impact, because now it's his word in a video praising her, and her thanking him back, against a laugh on stern and her alleging private convos. Trump has problems, but his supporters are way more enthusiastic about voting for him. THAT is what won Obama 2012 and 2008

 

I'm just gonna respond by saying conspiracies and lies like the Cuba thing isn't gonna make Trump leaning undecideds cave either

 

If you want me to point out PPP dishonesty, last time they sampled +4 dems (~2012 numbers, more people have become independent and more republicans have signed up, but lets say it's +4 dem), now they sampled +10 dem post debate and were like Clinton Rose 2% overall...that's not reality

LA TIMES is notoriously twisted. They have a terrible algorithm and they use the same 3000~ people every cycle. Not to mention they've already been busted for shady journalism. So nah, you can keep it.

 

And next time, edit your post please. You've had multiple warnings about double posting here. This is your last.

 

And the emails. Again? Really? They already said she can't go away for them because of lack of criminal intent.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

@Brightfire If you read what I wrote, you'd realized how that money part is addressed. WaPo quite literally said, Newsweek alleged X and Y didn't really answer anything about the problems pointed out

 

@Dad Not quite, but doubt it all you want, the team responsible for the Daybreak Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology which nailed the 2012 popular vote, and the LA times also nailed the primary. I'm sorry, there were 4% more dems in 2012, somehow I don't Trust polls that show 9-12% more dems, esp when Republicans have out registered dems this year. When a poll with +3-4 dems comes out, and Trump is behind, I do get worried

 

We'll see on that part about the emails. Idk what you call hiring a guy to delete them after being ordered to turn them over other than intent. 

 

But seems like most of y'all have made up your mind on whom to vote for, so happy voting I guess

 

I actually intend to stop posting here for one, might do a small review after each debate, but think Vla1ne's got the right approach with respect to this place

[Catterjune]

God, this topic is a huge embarrassment.

[Phantom Roxas]

LAtimes is the only real poll you should focus on because of their likely voter model

 

Q: Do you use a likely voter model? 

A: No, the respondents provide us with their own subjective probability of voting and we use that to weight their responses. 

 

Everyone else guesses who is a likely voter

 

When Trump was down in the LA times polls, I was worried, he's not down, he's gone up post debate. She came off like a smug ass, Trump killed her on the Trade and Terrorism part (what most Americans care about) him flubbing on Social Justice/Birtherism is saddening to me, but not important

 

"Miss Piggy" sure as hell didn't have an impact, because now it's his word in a video praising her, and her thanking him back, against a laugh on stern and her alleging private convos. Trump has problems, but his supporters are way more enthusiastic about voting for him. THAT is what won Obama 2012 and 2008

 

I'm just gonna respond by saying conspiracies and lies like the Cuba thing isn't gonna make Trump leaning undecideds cave either

 

If you want me to point out PPP dishonesty, last time they sampled +4 dems (~2012 numbers, more people have become independent and more republicans have signed up, but lets say it's +4 dem), now they sampled +10 dem post debate and were like Clinton Rose 2% overall...that's not reality

 

Why do you get to dictate which poll is "real" and what we "should" focus on?

 

You're not mocking the "Miss Piggy" idea, as you actively insist on identify her solely by that name. Can you just stop with that?

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

 

Why do you get to dictate which poll is "real" and what we "should" focus on?

 

You're not mocking the "Miss Piggy" idea, as you actively insist on identify her solely by that name. Can you just stop with that?

I don't, their likely voter method is more accurate than what most firms do because it's a continuous variable with LA times, rather than a discrete variable 

 

Example, if you say you're 50% likely to vote, most firms throw you out, but LA times weights you and still considers you

 

They did nail 2012 about perfectly though. Oh it's hard to look up her name when I was on my phone. I meant no disrespect. Hell I think she's kinda attractive 

 

 

God, this topic is a huge embarrassment.

This election is a huge embarrassment.

 

You've got the wicked witch of the west vs an idiot who doesn't realize he's hit a winning strategy coalition

 

Did you know there are 4.7 million no college white males that aren't registered to vote in the US, if Trump gets 1/8 of those, he wins FL, PA, OH by 5 pts, if he gets 1/5 he wins VA and the entire midwest, if he gets 1/3 he should win every state by NY and Cali

[Aerion Brightflame]

Sure, you quoted a long piece on the money that defends Trump assuming that he did not knowingly pay the consultant company to visit in order to scout out business deals, however we have a OFAC have no record of such a license existing for the corporation at that time (Admittedly giving a disclaimer that no such records existed). So we can infer that it didn't exist at the time, even with Clinton's attempts to branch out. I would also make the assumption that if Clinton had given Trump permission to scout out Cuba, we would have seen a mention of it and some official documentation suggesting so. 

 

So the point comes down to intent - About whether Trump knowingly approved payment of a corporation to go to Cuba on non humanitarian purposes. Which you are right, there is no evidence of it either way. But I would take a wild guess that he didn't pay 65,000 in expenses without there being an express reason to. Especially not to a third party.

 

In essence, you are right there is no absolute evidence in this and no way beyond a personal memo to prove he sent them to Cuba with the intent to do business there later on. But unless I am severly misreading the evidence in front of me (Which is possible, I am not an expenses lawyer, or any kind of lawyer) you can in fact confirm he spent money on the expenses of a third party US company that was operating in Cuba under the embargo and that as far as records show the US company had no OFAC approval. 

 

Which is still fairly damning. He cannot be convicted of it, but the evidence remains to suggest Trump was in some violation of the embargo. 

 

I'd also like to point out my contribution in the thread has nothing to with convincing people to vote one way or the other. That has never been the point of the thread in my eyes. The thread has always been about discussing the events of the election and the candidates. If you think the discussion ends because 'we won't change our mind on our votes (Ignoring the fact that I am British and thus never could vote in the first place)' you misunderstand the point of the thread in my eyes. Which may be part of the tension that seems to breed here. 

 

EDIT: Also if we want to dwell on some other point that isn't up for debate we have this:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37521619

 

Where he flat out calls Alicia Machado disgusting, calls for people to dig into her sex tape, and declares Hillary got her citizen ship just to hit Trump about it in the debate all in one simple little tweet. 

 

EDIT 2: Also part of the reason I don't have much pro Trump stuff is because I find most articles on r/politics which funking hate Trump. 

[Phantom Roxas]

I don't, their likely voter method is more accurate than what most firms do because it's a continuous variable with LA times, rather than a discrete variable 

 

Example, if you say you're 50% likely to vote, most firms throw you out, but LA times weights you and still considers you

 

They did nail 2012 about perfectly though. Oh it's hard to look up her name when I was on my phone. I meant no disrespect. Hell I think she's kinda attractive 

 

 

This election is a huge embarrassment.

 

You've got the wicked witch of the west vs an idiot who doesn't realize he's hit a winning strategy coalition

 

Did you know there are 4.7 million no college white males that aren't registered to vote in the US, if Trump gets 1/8 of those, he wins FL, PA, OH by 5 pts, if he gets 1/5 he wins VA and the entire midwest, if he gets 1/3 he should win every state by NY and Cali

 

Alicia Machado. It's that easy. I'd be fine with "That woman who claims Trump called her Miss Piggy", since you would at least still be attributing that insult to Trump, but when you are directly calling her "Miss Piggy", you're just as guilty of perpetuating the insult.

 

If Trump is too stupid to even realize strategies that could help him win the election, I doubt that he'd be smart enough to realize what to do as President.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

 

Alicia Machado. It's that easy. I'd be fine with "That woman who claims Trump called her Miss Piggy", since you would at least still be attributing that insult to Trump, but when you are directly calling her "Miss Piggy", you're just as guilty of perpetuating the insult.

 

If Trump is too stupid to even realize strategies that could help him win the election, I doubt that he'd be smart enough to realize what to do as President.

Haha fine, Alicia Machado is a very beautiful woman, although my problems with her past life still stand

 

As for bolded, well yes, Trumpism has the devastating potential to pull in Blue Collar White and low income Blacks and Hispanics. Trump the man hasn't played that as he should. He's still more than 200k ahead in FL ballot requests, so he might pull through, but if he was but a little kinder in some regards (like no reason to piss off suburban white women) he'd have this race in a bag instead of it being a horserace. I'm saddened that it seems at the moment he doesn't realize what he has, but I've been surprised a lot this election, so who knows what will happen on nov 8th. 

 

Personally I've become too vested in the race and it's have a bad effect on college and life in general so I intend to take a step back for a while. My one vote won't sway Iowa let alone the election, there's not rational reason to get all worked up about the polls moving up and down.

 

Anyway, I've been kinda aggressive towards you, and that probs wasn't warranted, sorry bout that

[Dad]

Trump ain't exactly helping this Alicia Machado situation either. He just blew up twitter with a fake sex tape (is comprised of clips of Alicia from her TV series and a porn star who looks like her) and a theory that Clinton helped her become a citizen just to use her against Trump.

 

I'm not sure half of that is English. Like, what the funk?

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/502484/?client=safari

 

Well isn't this facininating? TBH I didn't buy it either

 

You sure the sex tape is fake?

[Dad]

Yes I'm sure. And that article amounts to Nothing. Because everyone at home heard him just fine.

[Aerion Brightflame]

I don't think the sex tape's existence is the most important part of the tweet unless you really need some adult entertainment. It's certainly not the most damning of the things commented, given that that one tweet undermines the entire defence he was trying to build around the prior comments. 

 

The mic thing, if true, is sad because Trump does play well off an audience compared to Hillary. But it doesn't change the poor content of what he was saying, nor the general debate behavoir. Or that the overwhelming majority of people tuned into the debate could hear him just fine. 

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

No, I agree, he needs to go high when they go low. Having Ms. Wisconsin speak positively about him was honestly stronger than using the tape.

 

Esquire sent a reporter down to the border and near unanimously people supported a wall. Hispanics more than whites actually. Trump just needs to show compassion. His idea isn't wrong

 

Also recent video of HRC laughing at bernie supporters and calling them deluded (about free College) Inthink came up. Why people do stupid things like this is baffling