UK EU Referendum [In or Out?]

[Aerion Brightflame]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-eu-referendum-petition-latest-news-debate-parliament-mps-uk-position-in-europe-a7132836.html

 

Well I didn't expect this after the first shoot down. Even if nothing comes of it, well done Parliament for actually discussing the issue as you should have given the level of support the petition received. 

 

EDIT:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/jul/12/uk-scientists-dropped-from-eu-projects-because-of-post-brexit-funding-fears

 

And chalk this up as a negative consequence that means a lot. For me personally this is terrifying because it cuts down on my future options given I am enrolled at a Russel Group university studying one of the affected subjects. 

 

Of course it'll probably get smoothed out whenever negotiations start, but it's still a worrying trend if research opportunities are being denied to UK researchers - One of the few areas we are fairly good at. Because it's another area we can't trust the government alone to fund efficiently. They have a history of underfunding the Sciences. 

 

Research is an international area, but it requires funding actually allocated to British institutions to continue at a decent pace for the benefit of our nation.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

It still seems as bad as the Electoral college choosing a president against the Popular vote.

 

Anyway "the committee said the debate did not mean it was supporting the call for a second referendum and it was "too late" to change the referendum rules"

 

And you have everyone from Corbyn to May saying its a done deal.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-eu-referendum-petition-latest-news-debate-parliament-mps-uk-position-in-europe-a7132836.html

 

Well I didn't expect this after the first shoot down. Even if nothing comes of it, well done Parliament for actually discussing the issue as you should have given the level of support the petition received.

 

EDIT:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/jul/12/uk-scientists-dropped-from-eu-projects-because-of-post-brexit-funding-fears

 

And chalk this up as a negative consequence that means a lot. For me personally this is terrifying because it cuts down on my future options given I am enrolled at a Russel Group university studying one of the affected subjects.

 

Of course it'll probably get smoothed out whenever negotiations start, but it's still a worrying trend if research opportunities are being denied to UK researchers - One of the few areas we are fairly good at. Because it's another area we can't trust the government alone to fund efficiently. They have a history of underfunding the Sciences.

 

Research is an international area, but it requires funding actually allocated to British institutions to continue at a decent pace for the benefit of our nation.

So for Brexit to be seen as positive it has to benefit you directly? Isn't that the opposite of objective? It seems really narrow minded to be trying to play doom and gloom when all the post Brexit stock numbers are rising

 

Also why stop at 2? Would you keep pushing for new votes till your side won?

[Aerion Brightflame]

It had several million signatures. Even if parliament only debate it for 20 minutes before shooting it down, it's still a good thing. Because it would undermine the credibility of the system if the most signed petition in British history didn't get debated in parliament. 

 

In other related news I.E. the Labour Leadership challenge. 

 

Today Corbyn managed to reitorate the fact he is automatically a member of the ballot in a Leadership challenge against him. Not sure why that ever should have been in doubt but hey. 

 

In response, the rest of Labour introduced a new rule, saying that any member of the Labour party who had been a member for less than six months (I.E. the people who Corbyn will have brought in) must pay a fee of £25 in order to be allowed to vote in the Leadership challenge. 

 

Seems legit, and highlights just how low Labour MP's are willing to go to oust Corbyn. 

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/14/germany-states-british-access-to-eu-single-market-reasonable-bre/amp/?client=safari#

[ihop]

That's only for financial services, which is hardly what the uneducated masses who voted Brexit hoping it'd be easier for them to get a job were looking for.

[Aerion Brightflame]

It's also nothing we didn't already know - The article is basically saying that the UK could potentially get access to the free market. Which we already knew. The issue isn't whether or not we get free market access, it's what we have to give up in the negotiations to obtain it. 

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/theresa-may-plans-for-brexit-trade-deals-with-the-usa-and-austra/amp/?client=safari#

 

This seems promising guys

[cr47t]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/20/europe/britain-may-merkel-germany/

 

Thought you guys might enjoy discussing this.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/politics/694787/BREXIT-BOOM-27-countries-around-world-want-trade-deal-UK/amp?client=safari

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/no-real-shift-towards-scottish-independence-since-brexit-vote-poll?client=safari

 

Good news I guess

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/uk/699772/Brexit-Remain-EU-referendum-European-Union-workplace-PwC-Relate-legal-action/amp?client=safari

 

If there was ever a question on how PC ruins lives, this is how

[Dad]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/uk/699772/Brexit-Remain-EU-referendum-European-Union-workplace-PwC-Relate-legal-action/amp?client=safari

 

If there was ever a question on how PC ruins lives, this is how

 

What the funk is politically correct about any of this?  

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

What the funk is politically correct about any of this?

 

All pro-leave people are racist white bigots who want to leave. They're the same cowards that stole the future away from the younger generation. Brexit is politically incorrect

 

This is same type of harrasment Pro-Trump people deal with on a daily basis

[Dad]

All pro-leave people are racist white bigots who want to leave. They're the same cowards that stole the future away from the younger generation. Brexit is politically incorrect

 

This is same type of harrasment Pro-Trump people deal with on a daily basis

 

And what makes you believe the people in the other party don't face the same stupid name calling bullshit from their counterparts?  Ya'll so busy looking for something to jabroni about that you're labeling yourselves.  Don't make no funking sense.  And as soon as you tell me Pro-Hillary don't face the same "PC" bullshit, you're a liar.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

And what makes you believe the people in the other party don't face the same stupid name calling bullshit from their counterparts?  Ya'll so busy looking for something to jabroni about that you're labeling yourselves.  Don't make no funking sense.  And as soon as you tell me Pro-Hillary don't face the same "PC" bullshit, you're a liar.

They don't as much. That's why leaners are a thing

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/16/britain-could-have-special-relationship-with-eu-after-brexit-say/amp/?client=safari

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/19/boom-or-gloom-the-economic-impact-of-brexit-so-far

 

Highlights

 

UK employment has never been higher

Inflation has edged up but remains low

Sales rose much faster than expected following the referendum

Households' hopes for their finances rebounded after the vote

The deficit is smaller than this time last year

The FTSE has rallied to approach an all-time high

 

So a fair bit of good, main worry is

 

Surveys point to the economy shrinking

 

But it's technically not a recession yet so fingers crossed

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/23/uk-economic-surveys-defy-brexit-fears

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/23/nicola-sturgeon-to-appoint-brexit-minister?client=safari

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/26/theresa-may-will-trigger-brexit-negotiations-without-commons-vot/amp/?client=safari

 

And it's over

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

If a mod could merge these posts, I would be very grateful in accordance to the new rule.

 

You Gov poll: Over 50% of those who backed Labour in the last general election, then voted to Leave the EU no longer support Labour.

 

Thoughts on this brit people?

[Aerion Brightflame]

It's like a 6th of the party overall, since most of the labour party (Around 2/3's) voted to remain. Additionally Labour party membership actually increased a lot in the recent leadership contest due to a wave of support for Mr Corbyn (Hence why he won the leadership challenge with like 66.7% of the vote) so it probably evens the numbers out a little. 

 

Additionally I've not seen statistics on say Tories who voted remain who have left the party which would also be an interesting figure because the Tories voted mostly to leave. 

 

It's interesting, but we don't have a general election for another couple of years so it's not that huge. 

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/23/labours-losing-leave-voters/

 

But yeah, no real information on how the conservative side of the isle reacted to brexit. I expect a surge for UKIP honestly, but Farage

quitting probs didn't help them much

 

 

It's like a 6th of the party overall, since most of the labour party (Around 2/3's) voted to remain. Additionally Labour party membership actually increased a lot in the recent leadership contest due to a wave of support for Mr Corbyn (Hence why he won the leadership challenge with like 66.7% of the vote) so it probably evens the numbers out a little. 

 

 

 

Additionally I've not seen statistics on say Tories who voted remain who have left the party which would also be an interesting figure because the Tories voted mostly to leave. 

 

It's interesting, but we don't have a general election for another couple of years so it's not that huge. 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37532364?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

 

"The UK will begin the formal Brexit negotiation process by the end of March 2017, PM Theresa May has said"

 

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/prime-minister-theresa-may-set-repeal-eu-act-queens-speech-next-brexit-step-1584364

 

Was this sooner or later than what you expected? So April 2019 ~ the time when A50 will finish, an odd sync up with the start of the the 2020 race

 

https://www.ft.com/content/45137d44-8f0a-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78

 

Minister appears to signal Britain will leave the single market

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

BUMP:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

 

"Andrew Haldane says his profession must adapt to regain the trust of the public, claiming narrow models ignored ‘irrational behaviour’"

 

There's a real point to be made here. UK and US are both thriving post their populist revolt, and these models have largely failed us. What do pro EU people have going for them now?

 

May will trigger A50 in March iirc

[Aerion Brightflame]

Neither the US's or the UK's 'revolt' has taken effect yet. Any prosperity cannot be assinged to them, at least in our case. There is still no evidence as to whether or not leaving the EU will be beneficial because we've not left yet, so it's all up in the air.

 

I'm still feeling the same as I ever did, that leaving the EU will be a mistake. I feel justified by this viewpoint given the government has still given no official indication as to what is being negotiated towards, how the EU supreme court took a stance against the Snooper's charter (Because funk our government for proposing it, and for trying to get it to pass here by going to the EU Supreme Court after it was turned down in the UK), how the EU ambassador resigned a few weeks ago over Downing Street's muddled thinking, because the lack of one of the the individuals who knows the most about the workings of Brussels is a wonderful thing to have shortly before negotiations. Add that to other issues and delays (I.E. how May lost the battle to be able to enact Brexit without the say of Parliament) she still wants to plow ahead with the March deadline.

 

So you know, the same sheet as before. We still have no say as to what Brexit we want to go for, we have no semblance of organisation seemingly in our government about it, and I still have very little faith in the UK government negotiating in our interests instead of theres.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

Neither the US's or the UK's 'revolt' has taken effect yet. Any prosperity cannot be assinged to them, at least in our case. There is still no evidence as to whether or not leaving the EU will be beneficial because we've not left yet, so it's all up in the air.

 

I'm still feeling the same as I ever did, that leaving the EU will be a mistake. I feel justified by this viewpoint given the government has still given no official indication as to what is being negotiated towards, how the EU supreme court took a stance against the Snooper's charter (Because funk our government for proposing it, and for trying to get it to pass here by going to the EU Supreme Court after it was turned down in the UK), how the EU ambassador resigned a few weeks ago over Downing Street's muddled thinking, because the lack of one of the the individuals who knows the most about the workings of Brussels is a wonderful thing to have shortly before negotiations. Add that to other issues and delays (I.E. how May lost the battle to be able to enact Brexit without the say of Parliament) she still wants to plow ahead with the March deadline.

 

So you know, the same sheet as before. We still have no say as to what Brexit we want to go for, we have no semblance of organisation seemingly in our government about it, and I still have very little faith in the UK government negotiating in our interests instead of theres.

It'll be interesting to see what PM May's hard Brexit looks like. I do however agree that y'all are in uncharted territories, though for the time being it seems like much of the doom and gloom predictions have not come to pass. Which is good news.

 

Corbyn didn't seem that opposed to the stopping of free-movement; is that a poly-party position in the UK?

 

---

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN14Z0Z0

 

Pound slides, can I publish our Convo in the PM about the matter?

 

---

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-britain-johnson-idUSKBN1500UC

 

But this is something that's really interesting. I wouldn't put it past the realm of possibility if the UK entered NAFTA or some other free-market with America in the near future given a hard Brexit. You'd have the trade advantages without a need for free-movement. In addition, the cultural differences wouldn't be as stark as with the migrants I'd assume

 

---

 

 

Isn't a 1:1 dollar to Pound garbage for the UK because we are not an export economy? We want the pound to be super high value against other currencies because that means we get more for our money?

 

We'll see how the market responds after she has an actual speech about it which she intends to do latter this week. That will be the first indication as to what sort of deal we negotiate towards.

 

I'd expect the market to jump a little anyway after that announcement regardless of what is said because it's adding certainty and that's part of what dictates the market. Unless May's speech is overly vague (Which is possible, because nothing indicates that Westminster has a clue what it's doing)

 

 

 

 

Isn't a 1:1 dollar to Pound garbage for the UK because we are not an export economy? We want the pound to be super high value against other currencies because that means we get more for our money?

 

We'll see how the market responds after she has an actual speech about it which she intends to do latter this week. That will be the first indication as to what sort of deal we negotiate towards.

 

I'd expect the market to jump a little anyway after that announcement regardless of what is said because it's adding certainty and that's part of what dictates the market. Unless May's speech is overly vague (Which is possible, because nothing indicates that Westminster has a clue what it's doing)

Wasn't the point that the northern labor strong hold that UKIP is targeting are export heavy?

 

I also find it interesting, that two british politicians have met with Trump before May

 

 

We export high end goods, like cars and suits and stuff. But we aren't like Germany, we don't mine or manufacture all the components possible on British shores, we have to import them. So even the sheet we make we have to import heavily for. A weak Pound is just disasterous for us as a result.

 

And no matter how export heavy the North of the UK may be (I don't think it is that heavy), it's kinda irrelevant to the economy as a whole. Because the majority of the British economic comes from the financial sector in London, because London is the financial capital of the world. London could quite happily be it's own nation, and the rest of the country would be worse off for it leaving.

 

We expierenced a downturn in manufactoring just like the US, and we don't have an export economy anymore as a result save for the high end stuff. And I guess livestock, British Meat and veg goes a lot of places. But for the most part we are services heavy, not export heavy.

 

But a low Pound really doesn't work for us; It's the reason it stayed so high for so long historically, we wanted it to be high. If we wanted to lower our currency, we could have done that; We didn't share the Euro, there was nothing stopping us from making the pound like the Yen.

 

I also like that the two politicians that Trump has met are irrelevant to the Cabinet; Farage isn't an MP, and Gove isn't part of May's cabinet, and thus neither have any need to actually meet him officially. Him not meeting May isn't that shocking, May is not an especially good leader in my eyes.

 

We had both of those things already though:

• The monarchy gives us an almost unique position in terms of tourism. A tonne of natural beauty sites, and a lot of history means we had a very solid tourism industry without a low pound.
• London has a tonne of financial loopholes that make it attractive to foriegn buiness, is the banking capital of the world so we get essentially any non American coming to us, and is extorntionate to live in because of the fact property gets bought out by millionares and such hoarding assets as is.

A low pound doesn't change either of those things that much, we already had them present as a part of the British economy, but they still mattered less than the services offered by the financial sector which a low pound hurt. Seriously, if our financial issue was a high pound, then it would have been addressed on some level at sometime within the past decade.

 

It remains to be seen how the UK will do after Brexit. Because it is at a bare minimum two years and 3 months away, and because we still have no idea what the government is negotiating towards. So again, it's too soon to tell anything about whether the choice will be good or bad. It's just educated speculation. Because I don't know much about economics, I tend not to speculate about it anymore beyond pointing out s*** like the pound being weak means bad thins for us.

 

Yeah, but if Trump is actually going to be hard on Russia those two meetings make sense because they are the two most immediate 'allies' against them. Unless you intended to go to war soon, the UK doesn't need to be an immediate meeting. It is a fair assumption we are still close allies. You only need to go to us before the others if you are going to war because the UK miltiary is arguably the best in the world when it comes to quality.

 

[Aerion Brightflame]

Need I remind you that we have not left the EU yet. A lot of the doom and gloom predictions were about us actually leaving it. You can't say 'Oh they've not come true yet' when the critera for them being applicable remains to happen. Just as it's faulty to credit us with 'getting out' when we haven't actually gotten out yet. Stop jumping the gun on this. I do need to point out that the pound has been in a pretty sheet place since we voted to leave, and currently sits at like the second lowest it's been in 21 years.

 

Corbyn is like a more extreme version of Sanders, he has very strong conviction in what are fairly radical viewpoints in the UK currently. He has always been in favour of free movement of people, I'm not sure if that is the view of the party, but it is certaintly his personal view. Quite frankly I think free movement is something most politicians don't actually have any objection too, it's more the people who seem to.

 

Go ahead, it's a fairly obvious point to make:

 

I don't think a free market deal with the US gives us anywhere near as much as the EU single market does, but whatever. We'll see what happens whenever it happens. I'm still certain that we will get a worse deal from this than the EU will (with respect to the EU) because any compromise with the EU puts us in the worse position than we are currently in. Technically even not compromising puts us in a worse position than we are currently in with regards to EU law.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

I don't think a free market deal with the US gives us anywhere near as much as the EU single market does, but whatever. We'll see what happens whenever it happens. I'm still certain that we will get a worse deal from this than the EU will (with respect to the EU) because any compromise with the EU puts us in the worse position than we are currently in. Technically even not compromising puts us in a worse position than we are currently in with regards to EU law.

How come? The GDP of the US is only slightly smaller than the whole EU. And with lower regulations + a pro-growth president, it could pretty easily overtake the EU (EU here including UK, so the value is likely already lower than the US)

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-21/britain-s-may-mexico-s-pena-nieto-to-meet-with-trump-this-month

 

An interesting situation might be the inclusion of the UK in NAFTA, North America -> North Atlantic? Seeing that Trump wants to renegotiate it, might end up happening. Either way, May meets with him on Thursday.

[Aerion Brightflame]

How come? The GDP of the US is only slightly smaller than the whole EU. And with lower regulations + a pro-growth president, it could pretty easily overtake the EU (EU here including UK, so the value is likely already lower than the US)

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-21/britain-s-may-mexico-s-pena-nieto-to-meet-with-trump-this-month

 

An interesting situation might be the inclusion of the UK in NAFTA, North America -> North Atlantic? Seeing that Trump wants to renegotiate it, might end up happening. Either way, May meets with him on Thursday.

 

Equivialant GDP doesn't correspond to Equivilant goods, because it's Gross Domestic Product.

 

There will still be a demand for the product we import from the EU, because there are a lot of EU products we demand because of quality not just price. We still want German cars, French Champaine and Wines, Italian Wines ect ect.

 

Just because the US has equivilant or better GDP doesn't mean it can ship us the same sorts of goods to the same sort of quality that we currently own. And that's probably more important to a consumer than just the money. It's part of the issue with economics I think, that economics often divorces itself from the reality to consider just the money.

 

Of course it also depends upon whether or not the UK maintains a lot of the quality regulations that the EU has; I hope it does, because most of them are in place for our benefit (I.E. requiring proof that something is harmless before use, rather than harmful before disqualifying). It's part of the reason I opposed free trade deals, because a lot of the US-EU free trade deals allowed the US's lower standards to be applicable in my nation. No thanks you.

 

May confirmed we are probably leaving the single market in exchange for border controls. Which is realistic, but irritating.