Lightsworn Judgment

[Slinky]

including charge at 2 and rota.

1 => (34/40) = 85%

2 => above * (33/39) = 71.9...%

3 => above * (32/38) = 60.5668...%

4 => above * (31/37) = 50.7...%

5 => above * (30/36) = 42.2876...%

6 => above * (29/35) = 35.038...%

 

Unless I forgot a card that should be mentioned to increase the odds the chances are more than 57% if you open with 5 cards and more than 64% if you open with 6 cards that you open with raiden.

I could technicly also take recharge into account, but that would be a bit much work for only a rough change.

 

I don't think that math is correct.

 

because with 6 copies and you're going second it' be 6/40 + 6/39 + 6/38 etc..

and that trend continues unless you draw 1, in which case, the numbers get all funky.

 

someone did this math when Heavy Storm was limited, and it equated to having a 16% chance of /having/ it in your hand at the start of turn 1 (with 6 cards).

and this was a card AT 1.

So theoretically, the number should be much larger than 65% if you're running 6 copies.

[(GigaDrillBreaker)]

2.5% chance of drawing in single card out of 40. 6 chances to draw one of 6 cards. Calculating each draw independently causes the math to fall victim to fallacies.

 

You are really overcomplicating this process.

[Slinky]

2.5% chance of drawing in single card out of 40. 6 chances to draw one of 6 cards. Calculating each draw independently causes the math to fall victim to fallacies.

 

You are really overcomplicating this process.

 

Except that's what you're supposed to do. Because every time you perform a draw, the probability changes for the next draw, because the secondary pool has changed value. If the value remained static, sure, you could calculate it all at once, but it's not. So you can't, and will lead to a lower percentage than what it actually is.

[The Highlander]

I don't think that math is correct.

 

because with 6 copies and you're going second it' be 6/40 + 6/39 + 6/38 etc..

and that trend continues unless you draw 1, in which case, the numbers get all funky.

 

someone did this math when Heavy Storm was limited, and it equated to having a 16% chance of /having/ it in your hand at the start of turn 1 (with 6 cards).

and this was a card AT 1.

So theoretically, the number should be much larger than 65% if you're running 6 copies.

I was calculating the chances of not drawing one, which starts at 34 other cards and ends at 29 other cards, so it is ( (34!) / (28!) ) / ( (40!) / (34!) ) = 35. ...% for 6 draws that you do not get at least a single copy, your chances are over 64%.

As for heavy at 1 and being unsearchable would be ( (39!) / (33!) ) / ( (40!) / (34!) ) = 34 / 40 = 85% of not opening with it, even if you open with 6 cards.

Actually it is so much easier to just calculate the one path that does not lead into a single copy, so I did it with both and 15% is actually about the sameas 16%, perhaps he also included upstart goblin, which would cause a re-roll each time you hit a copy.

a a a a a b a

a a a a a b b a

a a a a a b b b a

a a a a b a a

a a a a b a b a

a a a a b a b b a

a a a a b b a a

a a a a b b a b a

a a a a b b b a a

etc., which would take a along time to calculate, unless you use a trick to shorten it.

[(GigaDrillBreaker)]

Sorry for mixing things up, Highlander was definitely correct.

 

 

With upstart is rises to nearly 70%

[Slinky]

Sorry for mixing things up, Highlander was definitely correct.

 

 

What's the site for this?

I'd like to tinker with it.

 

Also more importantly, how did a topic on a trash trap card get to a math stand-off with Raiden?

[Toffee.]

...Isn't Eclipse Wyvern, like, the go-to for Judgment Dragon anyway? Since, you know, it's typically more reliable?

[(GigaDrillBreaker)]

What's the site for this?

I'd like to tinker with it.

 

Also more importantly, how did a topic on a trash trap card get to a math stand-off with Raiden?

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

[evilfusion]

What's the site for this?

I'd like to tinker with it.

 

Also more importantly, how did a topic on a trash trap card get to a math stand-off with Raiden?

 

I think it was because I mentioned how my LS Deck tends to brick if I didn't open Raiden.

[Slinky]

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx

 

These numbers still don't feel right, because they go against everything I learned in AP Statistics in high school, but w.e. Maybe my teacher was just sheet.

[Blake]

These numbers still don't feel right, because they go against everything I learned in AP Statistics in high school, but w.e. Maybe my teacher was just sheet.

Thing is, you can't check one card at a time.

 

By checking one at a time, you automatically decide Card #1 isn't Raiden, which... doesn't follow the line of thought.

 

By saying you take 6 from 40, you get a much more realistic percentage, because those 6 can all contain Raiden, and none of them exclude him.

[(GigaDrillBreaker)]

Thing is, you can't check one card at a time.

 

By checking one at a time, you automatically decide Card #1 isn't Raiden, which... doesn't follow the line of thought.

 

By saying you take 6 from 40, you get a much more realistic percentage, because those 6 can all contain Raiden, and none of them exclude him.

Hypergeomatric calculators have a sum-based result, which takes this into account. Highlander did the same. 

 

The difference is in calculating actual probability (what highlander did) and the really simple version of probability that isn't really applicable to real life.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

...Isn't Eclipse Wyvern, like, the go-to for Judgment Dragon anyway? Since, you know, it's typically more reliable?

No cause Chaos has much better engines for Wyvern be it BA or Hieratics

 

The only way Hyrids work is if the deck can offer each other something new. You might think with Dante being limited, Chaos needs LS, but even then you're better off just playing the LPD-Cir loop and making Beatrice (aka no, they still don't need it)

[(GigaDrillBreaker)]

No cause Chaos has much better engines for Wyvern be it BA or Hieratics

This isn't an argument against wyvern in LS, though.

 

That's like saying exciton wasn't good in tellar because it was better in nekroz.

[Slinky]

Okay, NOW I got it.

since you can't technically look at the cards.

 

With 5 chances, 6 possible cards, assuming you're going for 1 copy.

it equates to 57.7% of drawing it in those 5 cards.

 

NOW, when you perform your draw phase for going second (assuming you don't have it yet). Your deck is now 35 cards instead of 40. After inputting that in, the chance of you getting it on that draw is 17.1%

So, ultimately the chance of you drawing it in those 6 cards is 74.8%  (57.7 + 17.1)

 

or am I getting it wrong again, and just needlessly adding?

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

This isn't an argument against wyvern in LS, though.

 

That's like saying exciton wasn't good in tellar because it was better in nekroz.

What're you gonna banish Wyvern with ringo? Or did I miss a new TCG banlist leak with the rulers back?

[(GigaDrillBreaker)]

What're you gonna banish Wyvern with ringo? Or did I miss a new TCG banlist leak with the rulers back?

Oh, I am not saying wyvern isn't bad in ls since the rulers were banned, just pointing out your reasoning was like totally unrelated.

[Slinky]

Don't LS still run Chaos stuff? or Lightrays? (like Diabolos or something?)

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

Oh, I am not saying wyvern isn't bad in ls since the rulers were banned, just pointing out your reasoning was like totally unrelated.

I'm just saying Chaos wouldn't go near LS except maybe Raiden, in which case Wyvern really has nothing to banish it, therefore is inferior to Judgment in searching JD

[The Highlander]

Okay, NOW I got it.

since you can't technically look at the cards.

 

With 5 chances, 6 possible cards, assuming you're going for 1 copy.

it equates to 57.7% of drawing it in those 5 cards.

 

NOW, when you perform your draw phase for going second (assuming you don't have it yet). Your deck is now 35 cards instead of 40. After inputting that in, the chance of you getting it on that draw is 17.1%

So, ultimately the chance of you drawing it in those 6 cards is 74.8%  (57.7 + 17.1)

 

or am I getting it wrong again, and just needlessly adding?

Your first result is that you draw 1 out of the 34 cards that do not fit, 34/40, then you have 2 new paths with 6/39 to lose and 33/39 to hit another card that is not a copy, if you roll a die with 6 sides your first chance of getting a certain result is 1/6 and each of these results has 6 different results of its own, so the chances of rolling 2 6s is 1/6 * 1/6.

In this case your chance of getting another card (than raiden) is 34/40, the next path of not hitting one would be 33/39, so that is for 2 times drawing and both times not hitting raiden, so you keep following this and have 42. ...% to draw no copy with 5, if you draw a sixths card the next path would either be 29/35 to hit another non raiden card and 6/35 to hit a raiden card, and as that roughly 42% has 29 out of 35 possible paths to take (as all 29 are here of the same value and result)  and thus 29 out of 35 of that 42% chance keeps rolling and you get 42% * 29/35 = 35. ...%.

 

The 42% have 35 exists and 29 of those actually lead on, so you just multiply with the chance to hit one.

Actually in a case like this just calculate the chances of failing at your aim, so it you already imply all combinations of when you can draw the copies and how many you draw (>=1).

 

Back on track on the card at hand, considering the massive mills of lightsworns the card is actually not bad and makes Jd a bit more consistent, and luckily minerva does count, so with your 6 mills (in the best case of it actually being destroyed)  milling 1 copy should not be all too difficult and as it places on top of the deck without shuffling it can be used to simply reduce the size of a mill by 1, but search JD, so it is not even that awful if you do draw it ... come to think of it ... drawing a copy might not be that terrible, sure it is slow, however you can 1 for 1 trade it for jd if you can mill and in case you have minerva you can make sure you get at least 1 mill/ destruction if you chain it to something which threatens to destroy her ... would have definitely been far more stronger if it would be a spell and thus activatable during the turn you get it or if it would have worked with recharge.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

Don't LS still run Chaos stuff? or Lightrays? (like Diabolos or something?)

That's the point, BLS, CED and the rest are much better off playing the BAHieratic hybrid than going with LS...LS can run it sure, but if you're gonna use those cards, there's a much better deck to use them in

[Blake]

Don't LS still run Chaos stuff? or Lightrays? (like Diabolos or something?)

nah, good LS is just goodstuff deck with LS core

 

namely it was Clownsworn at its highest non-Ruler build.

[Toffee.]

Edgy, Lightsworn Fuckboi

LIGHT / 4

Spellcaster / Effect

When you Summon a Lightsworn, you can Special this card from your hand. If this card is Summoned, you can Banish facedown the top card of your Deck. Then, take a Lightsworn card from your Deck and place it on top of your Deck. If you activate this, you can't use effects for rest of the turn, except Lightsworn cards and LIGHT/Dragon-Types. This effect of "Edgy, Lightsworn Fuckboi" can only be activated once per turn. During either player's End Phase, you can Tribute this card: Mill the top 10 cards of your Deck.

1900 / 0

 

??????

[The Warden]

From what I recall, LS play Clownsworn (for Rank 4 Minerva spam) or Zombiesworn (also for Rank 4 Minerva spam).

 

I loathe LS in this day and age because you only have so much backrow, and they can eat it up stupidly quickly. More to the point that you can be controlling the duel, and one lucky mill can immediately put them on top. They force you to kill them as fast as possible, or you probably end up losing to their BS mills.

[Ryusei the Morning Star]

From what I recall, LS play Clownsworn (for Rank 4 Minerva spam) or Zombiesworn (also for Rank 4 Minerva spam).

I loathe LS in this day and age because you only have so much backrow, and they can eat it up stupidly quickly. More to the point that you can be controlling the duel, and one lucky mill can immediately put them on top. They force you to kill them as fast as possible, or you probably end up losing to their BS mills.

Chain Winter Blossom, hit Minerva

 

problem? :)